Can Manning Stretch the Carolina “D”? Consider This:
By Charles Jay
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In the buildup to Super Bowl, 50, which will be played next Sunday at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, there is going to be more and more discussion about Cam Newton of the Carolina Panthers being a sort of “2.0” version of the quarterback position, as he has a big arm and fast legs on a sizable frame, and thus threatens the Denver Broncos’ defense in any number of ways. And accordingly, the comparison will be made to Peyton Manning, who may be on his LAST legs at age 39 and could be engaging in his “swan song” in this Big Game, which, by the way, will kick off at 6:30 PM ET, with BetAnySports customers getting a big chance to place wagers on the game in progress through the facilities of Live Betting Extra.
Manning threw 17 interceptions this season, which was second most in the league, and he only started nine games. His supporters will point to the fact that he went without an interception in both of the playoff games (against Pittsburgh and New England) as well as his appearance against San Diego in the season finale. But what is the trade-off in terms of the scope of the Broncos’ offense?
That is something that has to be considered, and indeed it has been analyzed, by the Harvard College Sports Analysis Collective, no less. So how much trouble does he have stretching out a defense? We’ll expand in a second.
In the game itself, the Panthers are a six-point favorite, with a total of 45 points, as a lot of the public’s money has come in on Carolina.
There is also a virtual plethora of prop bets on the Super Bowl at BetAnySports, and one of them involves the total passing yards Manning will have in the game. Here it is:
Under 237.5 yards -125
Over 237.5 yards +105
The Harvard guys used, as a measurement, something they call “air yards,” which not only takes into account how far Manning threw a pass but also how difficult it was for the pass to travel down the field. For example, throwing something ten yards to the side on a screen is less difficult than a ten-yard pass over the middle, etc.
Well, Manning is only 34% accurate on passes that cover 20 or more of these “air yards” this season, while in the past he has been 44%. That is a precipitous drop. And when you move that figure up to 30 air yards, he is just 20%. His passes have gone an average of 1.3 yards shorter than they did last year and 2.6 yards shorter (this is PER pass, mind you) than nine years ago. But let’s consider that just two seasons ago, Manning set an all-time record for touchdowns and yards.
At BetAnySports, another Super Bowl betting prop prices it at -220 that he WILL throw an interception, and +180 that he won’t.
Well, if you are looking at these figures and taking them seriously, you can probably conclude that this is a guy who is less likely to take chances – as a way of keeping his team in the game – and more likely to go “safety-first.” That is the kind of thing that might provide some value in the +180 price (although Carolina led the league in takeaways) but “take away,” pardon the pun, from his passing yardage.
Enjoy a slew of Super Bowl betting props at BetAnySports, where you can open an account using your Visa card, a person-to-person transfer or the virtual currency of Bitcoin. And enjoy the “Big Game”!