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NFL Prop Bets and 2016 NFL Season Preview

football 45 - NFL Prop Bets and 2016 NFL Season Preview

Here are some great NFL Prop Bets (as of 08/19/16 – odds courtesy of Bovada). Use the links below to jump to a specific section:

Which Team will Win Super Bowl 51?
Which Conference will Win Super Bowl 51?
Which Team will Win the AFC?
Which Team will Win the NFC?
Which Team will Win the NFC East?
Which Team will Win the NFC North?
Which Team will Win the NFC South?
Which Team will Win the NFC West?
Which Team will Win the AFC East?
Which Team will Win the AFC North?
Which Team Will Win the AFC South?
Which Team will Win the AFC West?
Which WR will have the most Receiving Yards?
Which QB will have the most Passing Yards?
Which Player will win the MVP Award?

NFL Prop Bets: 2016-17 Super Bowl 51 Winner

Even though the New England Patriots will be without Tom Brady at quarterback for the first four games of the 2016 regular season, they are still the clear favorites to win Super Bowl 51 sitting at +600. Barring injury, Patriots backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo will start in Brady’s absence against the Cardinals, Dolphins, Texans, and Bills.

The Green Bay Packers are second favorites with Aaron Rodgers and company set at +850 on the current Futures list. Playing without star receiver Jordy Nelson last season, the Pack destroyed the Washington Redskins 35-18 in a Wild Card round but lost on the road to the Arizona Cardinals 26-20 in the Divisional Round.

The Seattle Seahawks are third at +900, followed by the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year, the Carolina Panthers, who are at +1200.

The Steelers are also listed at +1200. They lost in the 2015 Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs to the Denver Broncos, who would go on to win Super Bowl 50.

The Minnesota Vikings and Indianapolis Colts are next at +1600. The Broncos, who lost starting QB Peyton Manning to retirement and are yet to name their new starter (Mark Sanchez could be the guy!), are listed at +1800 along with the Dallas Cowboys. The New York Giants and Oakland Raiders follow at +2500, with the Kansas City Chiefs at +2800, and the Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens at +3300.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cleveland Browns, and San Francisco 49ers bring up the rear with as +10000 long shots to win Super Bowl.

Here are the odds for all 32 NFL teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • New England Patriots +600
  • Green Bay Packers +850
  • Seattle Seahawks +1100
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +1200
  • Carolina Panthers +1200
  • Arizona Cardinals +1200
  • Minnesota Vikings +1600
  • Indianapolis Colts +1600
  • Denver Broncos +1800
  • Dallas Cowboys +1800
  • Cincinnati Bengals +2000
  • New York Giants +2200
  • Oakland Raiders +2500
  • Kansas City Chiefs +2800
  • Houston Texans +3300
  • Baltimore Ravens +4000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +4000
  • Washington Redskins +5000
  • New York Jets +5000
  • Atlanta Falcons +5000
  • Chicago Bears +5000
  • Philadelphia Eagles +6600
  • Buffalo Bills +6600
  • Los Angeles Rams +6600
  • Miami Dolphins +6600
  • San Diego Chargers +6600
  • Detroit Lions +6600
  • New Orleans Saints +6600
  • Tennessee Titans +6600
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10000
  • San Francisco 49ers +10000
  • Cleveland Browns +10000

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NFL Prop Bets: 2016-17 Super Bowl 51 Conference Winner

  • AFC -120
  • NFC Even

2016-17 AFC Champion

Even though the Denver Broncos are the defending AFC champions, the New England Patriots are favorites to win the AFC heading into the 2016 season. As everyone knows by now, the Patriots will have to play the first four games without starting QB Tom Brady after Brady waived the white flag in his fight to overturn his “Deflategate” suspension. In his stead will be Jimmy Garoppolo, who has thrown just 31 NFL passes in his first two years of with the Pats.

New England is at +275 to win the AFC in 2016-17. The Pittsburgh Steelers are second at +550. Pittsburgh suffered key injuries on offense last season and lost 23-16 to the Broncos in the Divisional Round of the playoffs after beating the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round. The Colts are currently at +750 in third position on the odds list, with the Bengals and Broncos tied at +900 to win the AFC crown.

The Oakland Raiders are next at +1200. The Kansas City Chiefs, who lost to the Patriots in the Divisional Round last season, are at +1400, with the Baltimore Ravens at +1600, and the Texans at +1800. Houston was the other team that made the playoffs in the conference last season, getting blasted 30-0 by the Chiefs in a Wild Card matchup. Running back Lamar Miller joins Osweiler as new additions to the Texans’ offense.

The other seven teams in the conference all hold down odds of +2200 or worse to win the AFC in the season ahead, including the Jacksonville Jaguars (+2200), Buffalo Bills (+2800), New York Jets (+2800), Miami Dolphins (+3300), San Diego Chargers (+3300), and Tennessee Titans (+4000). The Cleveland Browns (+5000) are the longshots to win the AFC crown.

Here are the odds for all 16 AFC teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • New England Patriots +300
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +550
  • Indianapolis Colts +750
  • Cincinnati Bengals +900
  • Denver Broncos +900
  • Oakland Raiders +1200
  • Kansas City Chiefs +1400
  • Baltimore Ravens +1600
  • Houston Texans +1800
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +2200
  • Buffalo Bills +2800
  • New York Jets +2800
  • Miami Dolphins +3300
  • San Diego Chargers +3300
  • Tennessee Titans +4000
  • Cleveland Browns +5000

2016-17 NFC Champion

Green Bay is currently the slight favorite to win the 2016-17 NFC Championship. Although they fell short of a division title at 10-6 last season, with the Vikings posting an 11-5 mark in the NFC North, the Pack crushed the Washington Redskins 35-18 in the Wild Card Round but lost 26-20 the Arizona Cardinals in the Divisional Round. The Packers will be hoping that a healthy Jordy Nelson will give them a boost in the playoffs this time around.

The Seattle Seahawks are next on the list at +475 even though they lost to the Carolina Panthers in the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last season. The Carolina Panthers are in third on the futures list at +650.

The Seahawks had to settle for the sixth seed in the NFC side of the playoff bracket last year despite their 10-6 record, which put them three games behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West standings. Seattle then edged the Minnesota Vikings 10-9 in the Wild Card Round before falling 31-24 at Carolina in the Divisional Round. Seattle also lost running back Marshawn Lynch to retirement this offseason, but with a history of recent playoff success they’ve been pegged as one of the favorites to advance to the Super Bowl from the NFC.

Carolina destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 49-15 in last year’s NFC Championship Game before losing to the Broncos in Super Bowl 50. They are listed next along with the Cardinals at +650 with the Vikings set at +800.

It’s then the Dallas Cowboys a step back at +900 to claim the NFC crown after they went just 4-12 last season with starting quarterback Tony Romo limited to just four games due to injury. Romo will be healthy to start the team’s 2016 campaign and the Cowboys’ offense should also benefit from the addition of running back Ezekiel Elliott, their first-round draft pick.

The New York Giants are at +1000 on the NFC odds, with the Redskins at +2000, both the Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears at +2800, and each of the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Rams at +3300. The San Francisco 49ers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are then tied for last on the futures list at +4000 odds.

Here are the odds for all 16 NFC teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Green Bay Packers +450
  • Seattle Seahawks +475
  • Carolina Panthers +650
  • Arizona Cardinals +650
  • Minnesota Vikings +800
  • Dallas Cowboys +900
  • New York Giants +1000
  • Washington Redskins +2000
  • Atlanta Falcons +2800
  • Chicago Bears +2800
  • Philadelphia Eagles +3300
  • Detroit Lions +3300
  • Los Angeles Rams +3300
  • New Orleans Saints +3300
  • San Francisco 49ers +4000
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4000

2016-17 NFC East Champion

With NFL training camps underway, the Cowboys are the +175 favorite to win the NFC East, which has not had a repeat winner since 2001-04 Philadelphia Eagles. The Cowboys have a healthy Tony Romo to go along with one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and stud first-round draft pick, Ezekiel Elliott. The New York Giants are listed at +250, followed by the 2015-16 NFC East Champion Washington Redskins at +300 and the rebuilding Eagles at +400.

While Dallas has the lowest odds to win the division, the over/under on their win total is just 9.5, with a -135 payout for under and +105 for over. The Cowboys have been 12-4 and 4-12 the past two seasons. There is reason to be dubious about Romo playing all 16 regular-season games, but Ezekiel and serviceable RB Alfred Morris are the makings of a good rushing offense.

Defensively, the Cowboys cut DE Greg Hardy and have done little to upgrade a weak pass rush. One addition up front was DT Cedric Thornton.

The Giants’ win total is 8.0, with the over paying -135 and the under paying +105. With the combo of QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham Jr., the Giants are assured of scoring some points, and rookie WR Sterling Stephard could contribute early. After a 2015 season where their defense was among the NFL’s worst, the Giants have spent big to add DE Olivier Vernon, who had seven sacks last season with the Miami Dolphins.

On the back end, they used a high draft choice on CB Eli Apple, who should eventually replace veteran CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

With two games apiece against Beckham and the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant, the Washington Redskins felt it was worth it to get shut down CB Josh Norman, who helped the Carolina Panthers win the NFC last season. Washington’s over/under is 7.5 wins, with each side paying -115.

Along with Norman, Washington’s secondary has also been bolstered with free-agent SS David Bruton. Offensively, QB Kirk Cousins will have roughly the same supporting cast that includes WR DeSean Jackson and TE Jordan Reed.

The Eagles, with rookie head coach Doug Pederson, have a betting threshold of 7.0 wins, with a -140 under prop and a +110 over. The Eagles were porous in run defense last season and are hopeful that re-arranging the same personnel into a 4-3 alignment will be a solution. Their big addition was CB Leodis McKelvin, who has followed new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz from Buffalo.

Something else to watch for in Philly is whether DE Marcus Smith benefits from the new system after struggling as a linebacker in the 3-4.

Here are the odds for all four NFC East teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Dallas Cowboys +175
  • New York Giants +250
  • Washington Redskins +300
  • Philadelphia Eagles +400

2016-17 NFC North Champion

With Aaron Rodgers having led the Green Bay Packers to seven consecutive playoff appearances, Green Bay is better than even money to win the NFC North at -140. The Minnesota Vikings are a formidable second at +200, followed by the Chicago Bears at +900 and the Detroit Lions at +1000.

The money line on the Packers beating their over/under of 10.5 wins is -165, while the under is at +135. Rodgers has great targets to throw to led by the versatile WR Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson is back in the lineup after a year off rehabbing a knee injury and TE Jared Cook joins this powerful receiving corp as a solid red-zone target. The Packers also strengthened their 3-4 defense by drafting DT Kenny Clark in the first round to complement DE Mike Daniels and plan on having OLB Clay Matthews focus more on pass rushing.

Minnesota returns again as a likely playoff team, with an over/under of 9.5 wins (the over pays -145, the under pays +115 at Bovada). Minnesota lost their wild-card game vs the Seattle Seahawks and this should be a stepping stone for the young team. The Vikings’ top priority in the off-season was to shore up the offensive line. They signed two veterans, G Alex Boone and T Andre Smith, to help support and protect QB Teddy Bridgewater and open running lanes for their stud RB Adrian Peterson. Minnesota’s main addition on defense is rookie CB Mackensie Alexander.

Chicago’s over/under is 7.5 wins with a -115 money line on the over and the under. Coach John Fox will be reunited with former Bronco MLB Danny Trevathan. Da Bears also fortified their D by adding pass-rushing DT Akiem Hicks. On offense, Jay Cutler and Alshon Jeffrey continue their productive relationship, but Chicago’s offensive is young with LT Charles Leno acting as the veteran based on his 13 career NFL starts.

The over/under on the Lions’ win total is 7.0 (Under -125, Over -105). Detroit has a new GM, Bob Quinn, which could mean the start of yet another rebuilding process in Detroit. The Lions were a 7-9 team in 2015 with WR Calvin Johnson, but Megatron is gone, opting to retire at age 30. Lions QB Matthew Stafford also has rookie LT Taylor Decker to protect his blind side. Could be another tough year in the Motor City.

Here are the odds for all four NFC North teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Green Bay Packers -140
  • Minnesota Vikings +200
  • Chicago Bears +900
  • Detroit Lions +1000

2016-17 NFC South Champion

Even though the Carolina Panthers D took a hit when their front office rescinded the franchise player tag on Josh Norman and lost the shutdown cornerback in free agency, the rest of the NFC South division has a long way to go to catch the Panthers. Cam Newton and Co. probably won’t repeat their 2015 record of 15-1, but the lack of big-time challenger makes the Panthers a -220 favorite to win the NFC South for the fourth year in a row. The rest of the field is clumped together with the Atlanta Falcons listed at +550, followed by the New Orleans Saints at +600 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +650.

The over/under on the Panthers’ win total is 10.5, with over favored at -125 and the under listed at -105. Carolina will have a much harder schedule this season, but Newton has 6-foot-5 WR Kelvin Benjamin back after a season lost to a torn ACL. Carolina has retained most of their front seven on defense, but with Norman now a Redskin, they must hope that rookie cornerbacks James Bradberry, Zack Sanchez and Daryl Worley can fill the bill.

Atlanta’s 2016-17 season wins total is set at 7.5, with a -135 money line on the under and +105 on the over. Based on last season’s records, Atlanta will have to deal with the NFL’s toughest schedule. They have not been aggressive acquiring quality receivers to help take the pressure off of Julio Jones, although they did sign WR Mohamed Sanu who never became a viable No. 2 receiver over five seasons in Cincinnati. Defensively, they did not address a below average pass rush but they have a promising rookie in SS Keanu Neal.

The Saints’ over/under is 7.0 wins, with each side paying -115 at Bovada. Drew Brees and WR Brandin Cooks will be complemented by TE Coby Fleener and rookie WR Michael Thomas, so they should score a lot of points. The D is another story. The Saints allowed an NFL-record 45 touchdown passes last season, and new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is working with mostly the same players. The Saints should have a better pass rush with DT Sheldon Rankins.

Tampa Bay’s total is also 7.5, with -140 under and +110 over odds. Second-year QB Jameis Winston will be the focal point of a young offense. Early reports say he is looking much improved. The Buccaneers gave up a 70% completion percentage last season and hired former Falcons coach Mike Smith as defensive coordinator. The incoming veterans, CB Brent Grimes and OLB Daryl Smith, have worked in the past. First-round pick Vernon Hargreaves should also help tighten up the coverage.

The NFC South’s cross-over is with the strong AFC West, which makes it unlikely the division will produce a wild-card team.

Here are the odds for all four NFC South teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Carolina Panthers -220
  • Atlanta Falcons +550
  • New Orleans Saints +600
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650

2016-17 NFC West Champion

The NFC West could again be the strongest in the league, with two teams with double-digit win totals for four consecutive years. We expect more of the same as the Seahawks and Cardinals look ready for another run at the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are the -110 favorite to win the division, with Arizona at +140, followed by the Los Angeles Rams at +750 and the San Francisco 49ers at +2000.

The 2015 Seahawks started the 2015-16 season at 0-2 but were able to still reach the NFC divisional round in the playoffs. Russell Wilson is proving to be an elite NFL QB, but the offense will be without Marshawn Lynch this season. The over/under on Seattle’s win total is 10.5, with a -140 money line for the over and +110 for the under. Wilson and his receivers reached a new level last season, but the entire Seattle offensive line has projected starters who are either new – RG Germain Ifedi, RT J’Marcus Webb – or in new positions. Seattle retains nine starters from their renowned defense, with rookie NT Jarran Webb, from Alabama, expected to step up as a run-stuffer. Seattle also lost pass-rushing OLB Bruce Irvin in free agency.

Arizona is listed at -175 to exceed 9.5 wins, with the under paying +145. The Cardinals went 13-3 last season and their highly productive offense returns in 2016-17 nearly intact. QB Carson Palmer, WR Larry Fitzgerald and RB David Johnson Tare the foundations of a ver strong group. The Cardinals traded with the New England Patriots for OLB Chandler Jones, who had 12.5 sacks last season. Jones should improve the Arizona pass rush that had just 36 sacks last season. CB Patrick Peterson and FS Tyrann Mathieu return as studs in a very talented defensive backfield.

The NFL is hoping that the Los Angeles Rams will turn things around quickly in their new old home, but oddsmakers have their doubts, with a -155 money line on Under for 7.5 wins and +125 for the over. First overall draft pick Jared Goff will probably be ready to start sooner rather than later, but the Rams’ 31st-ranked passing game no longer has TE Jared Cook. Todd Gurley is perhaps the best RB in the league, and everyone expects him to see a lot of touches if Goff is the QB. With a 7-9 record last season, the Rams defense didn’t get much notice, but with CB Trumaine Johnson it’s a well above-average unit.

The recent and short-lived success of the San Francisco 49ers seems like a distant memory. After a disappointing 2015-16 season, oddsmakers don’t see much to look forward to this year either and have the Niners at an over/under of 5.5 wins, with each prop paying -115. New coach Chip Kelly has inherited a roster that has been hard-hit over the past two seasons by retirements and suspensions and there is a full-fledged QB competition between Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbett, neither of whom instill much hope for their fans. Defensively, the 49ers hope first-rounder DeFoster Buckner will immediately improve the front four.

Here are the odds for all four NFC West teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Seattle Seahawks -110
  • Arizona Cardinals +140
  • Los Angeles Rams +750
  • San Francisco 49ers +2000

2016-17 AFC East Champion

When Tom Brady is in the lineup, the Patriots usually win the AFC East. In fact, the last time that the New England Patriots failed to win the AFC East was in 2008 when Brady suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 1. Of course, Brady being suspended for the first four games due to Deflategate is not the same as missing an entire season, but his absence could be a determining factor for their playoff seeding. Three of the four games where the Patriots will start Jimmy Garoppolo at QB are at home, which explains why New England remains a favorite at -225 to win the division. The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are listed at +500, while the Miami Dolphins are listed at +1000.

In season win total props, the Patriots are -160 to exceed 10.5 wins and +130 for the under. It isn’t HC Bill Belichick’s style to make big splashes in free agency, and New England’s offseason was mostly about diversifying a passing game that is heavy on five-receiver and/or multiple tight-end sets. Martellus Bennett was brought in from the Chicago Bears and could be an unstoppable complement to Rob Gronkowski. The Pats also added WR Nate Washington. Since 2009, New England is 10-1 straight-up and 5-5-1 against the spread in September home games, which might indicate they will manage until Brady is back.

Buffalo is listed at even money to beat 8.0 wins, and -130 to finish the season below .500. Although training camp just started, the Bills are already behind the 8-ball after losing rookie OLB Reggie Ragland to a season-ending knee injury. DE/OLB Shaq Lawson (shoulder surgery) is expected to miss the first 6-8 weeks. On offense, they are looking for continued improvement from QB Tyrod Taylor and hope that 31-year-old RB Reggie Bush still has something left in the tank entering his 11th NFL season.

The Jets are also projected to have 8.0 wins, with a +110 prop for over and -140 for under 8 wins on the season. After going 10-6 in 2015, the Jets have the seventh-toughest schedule in the NFL based on last year’s records so it looks like it will be a tough task to match or exceed last year’s W-L record. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick signed a one-year deal providing temporary stability at the top of the offense. His receiving corp remains intact as well with elite WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker leading the way. The big question about the Jets offense is whether they will lose a step replacing power back Chris Ivory with a finesse back in Matt Forte. Forte is 30 years old, the career tipping point for most backs, but should have tread left on his tires. The Jets’ top-rated defense will face much stronger competition this season (they face the Patriots twice, Chiefs, Steelers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Colts, and Bengals among others). NT Damon Harrison went to the NYG and was replaced by Steve McClendon but the remaining front four made up of DEs Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and 2nd year DE Leonard Williams is amongst the best in the league. CB Darelle Revis and LB David Harris are back and ready to prove they are not “over-the-hill”.

The Dolphins have an over/under of 7.0 wins, with over listed at -130 and the under is an even-money wager. New HC Adam Gase has some studs of his own in the front four – DT Ndamukong Suh and DE Cameron Wake, to name two – but with the exception of Pro Bowl SS Reshad Jones, Miami’s secondary is not great CB Byron Maxwell, who lost his job in Philadelphia, and rookie CB Xavien Howard. On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins’ offensive line was among the NFL’s worst in 2015. Miami addressed that need by drafting LG Laremy Tunsil after he fell down the draft board after a damaging video of him smoking marijuana surfaced. They also lost RB Lamar Miller to the Texans, but here is hope that QB Ryan Tannehill will continue to raise his game.

Here are the odds for all four AFC East teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • New England Patriots -225
  • Buffalo Bills +500
  • New York Jets +500
  • Miami Dolphins +1000

2016-17 AFC North Champion

The Pittsburgh Steelers open as the +120 favorite to win the AFC North. The Cincinnati Bengals are +180, the Baltimore Ravens +300, and the Cleveland Browns are the longshot at +2000.

The Steelers season wins total prop is 10.5 (Over -130 money line, Under is at even money). Big Ben Roethlisberger got the young and often one-dimensional 2015 Pittsburgh Steelers to within one play of the AFC title game, sparking speculation about what might be possible for a more complete team. Roethlisberger has a strong supporting cast with RBs Le’Veon Bell, who missed nearly all of 2015 due to a knee injury, and DeAngelo Willams along with WRs Antonio Brown and Markus Wheaton. Martivis Bryant has been suspended for the 2016-17 season (at least). Unusual for the Steelers is that the big question mark is their young defense, which expects incoming CB Artie Burns, SS Sean Davis and pass-rushing DT Javon Hargrave to be ready to contribute by Week 1.

The Bengals have a -135 money line to top 9.5 wins and are listed at +105 to finish under. The Bengals have a highly ranked offense with QB Andy Dalton showing up big last season, along with strong weapons in RBs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill, WR AJ Green and TE Tyler Eifert. They are expected to have another dominant season on D. In the off-season they acquired 12-year veteran LB Karlos Dansby from the Browns.

The Ravens’ over/under is 8.5 wins (under is favored at -140, over listed at +110). Injuries and related attrition contributed to last season’s disappointing 5-11 record. Baltimore has high hopes for rookie LT Ronnie Stanley to protect QB Joe Flacco’s blind side, but the reinforcements in the passing game are two veteran castoffs, WR Mike Wallace and TE Ben Watson. Perennial Pro Bowl FS Eric Weddle has come aboard from the Chargers. This defense needs to get younger and has rookie DE Bronson Kafusi and OLB Kamalei Correa waiting in the wings.

Cleveland’s over/under prop is 4.5 wins, with over listed at -125 while under is at -105. Former MLB executive Paul DePodesta is overhauling the organization yet again and it will take time for this version of the Browns to take root. The Browns acquired QB Robert Griffin III and he will have some deep threats, including WR Josh Gordon (eligible in Week 5 after being suspended for all of the 2015 season for violating the NFL substance abuse policy). Cleveland has nowhere to go but up under re-acquired defensive coordinator Ray Horton, who had the league’s ninth-ranked D with the 2013 Browns.

Here are the odds for all four AFC East teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Pittsburgh Steelers +120
  • Cincinnati Bengals +180
  • Baltimore Ravens +300
  • Cleveland Browns +2000

2016-17 AFC South Champion

Oddsmakers expect the Indianapolis Colts, and their $87 million QB Andrew Luck, to bounce back to win the AFC South title after losing Luck for nearly half of the 2015-16 season. A week supporting cast and Luck’s penchant for scrambling and taking unnecessary hits led to him missing the last seven games and the team missed the playoffs.

Bovada currently lists Indianapolis +140 to win the AFC South, with the Houston Texans at +190 and the Jacksonville Jaguars at +300 in what could be a competitive but mediocre race to 9 or 10 wins. The Tennessee Titans are listed at +1000 as they try to improve with 2nd-year QB Marcus Mariota.

Indianapolis has a season wins prop of 9.5 (over is paying -105 and under is paying -125). They are hoping for improved offensive line play after acquiring first-round pick, C Ryan Kelly. Indianapolis was one of the league’s weakest run-blocking teams and veteran RB Frank Gore could use some help. Defensively, the Colts signed CB Patrick Robinson from the San Diego Chargers and injuries could force the Colts to move rookie FS T.J. Green into the starting lineup.

The Texans are -130 to top 8.5 wins and even money to finish under. Houston had an elite defense by the end of 2015 before losing 30-0 to the Kansas City Chiefs on wild card weekend. If the can get a healthy Jadaveon Clowney in the mix this season, their D could be tops in the league. The Texans rolled the dice big-time by acquiring QB Brock Osweiler from the Broncos on a huge free agent contract. He will hopefully become more than just a game manager and take advantage of explosive studs like WR DeAndre Hopkins, RB Lamar Miller and two promising rookies, WR Will Fuller and WR Braxton Miller.

Jacksonville is -130 to exceed 7.5 wins, and even money to finish under. This much-improved team boasts QB Blake Bortles and the WR combo of Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. The Jags acquired RB Chris Ivory from the Jets and now have legitimate power running attack. Signing DT Malik Jackson, late of Super Bowl-winning Denver, should add some power to the pass rush. Free safety Tashaun Gipson could also be the right fit for the secondary, which also has No. 5 overall pick Jalen Ramsey at cornerback.

The Titans win total is listed at 5.5, with the over paying -165 and the under paying +135. Tennessee’s run game should be amongst the best in the NFL with two RB studs in former NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray and Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, and this will surely help QB Marcus Mariota improve. Tennessee allowed an NFL-worst 54 sacks last season.

Based on 2015-16 team records, all four AFC South teams clustered between 19th and 24th in strength of schedule.

Here are the odds for all four AFC South teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Indianapolis Colts +140
  • Houston Texans +200
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +300
  • Tennessee Titans +900

2016-17 AFC West Champion

Oddsmakers see the AFC West potentially flipping, with Denver atop the board at +190, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders right behind at +220. The stuck-in-limbo San Diego Chargers are the +650 longshot. No team’s season win total is in the double digits, due in large part to the competitive nature of the Division.

Von Miller and a dominant defense we the main catalyst in Denver’s Super Bowl 50 run. This season may be a different story though. Denver is priced at -125 to have more than 9.0 wins, and -105 to fall below 9.0 wins. Even though the Denver Broncos are considering two-time castoff Mark Sanchez as a potential solution at quarterback, the Super Bowl champions’ odds of repeating as AFC West champion have risen. The often turnover-prone Sanchez and untested No. 3 QB Trevor Siemian are currently listed as co-starters, and this has certainly affected their win total betting prop. Denver is also hoping to find viable replacements for NT Malik Jackson and ILB Danny Trevathan, who parlayed their Super Bowl win into big free-agent contracts elsewhere.

The Chiefs’ over/under is slightly higher at 9.5 wins, with the over paying -105 and the under paying -125. This could be the best roster the Chiefs have had in years. They had a top-rated defense in 2015, but the returning group is not yet whole. Stud OLB Justin Houston is recovering from ACL surgery in February and they are unsure when he will return to the lineup. To make matters worse, SS Eric Berry remains away from Chiefs training camp as he has yet to sign his $10.8 million franchise tender. The offense is productive if unspectacular, and QB Nick Foles has come aboard to push incumbent Alex Smith for playing time. The Chiefs are hoping for a healthy Jamaal Charles to return from his own 2015 season ending knee surgery.

The Raiders’ over/under is 8.5 wins, with a -140 prop on beating it and +110 on falling short. Oakland was the division’s most active team in free agency, signing OLB Bruce Irvin away from the Seattle Seahawks to complement Pro Bowl DE Khalil Mark, while also adding seasoned FS Reggie Nelson. They signed CB Sean Smith from Kansas City, and he gives them a 6-foot-3 cover guy while at the same time weakening a division rival. Third-year QB Derek Carr, who has fine skill-position support with WR Amari Cooper and RB Latavius Murray, should also have better blocking with the arrival of LG Kelechi Osemele.

The San Diego Chargers’ over/under win prop is 7.0, with a -130 line for the over and an even-money proposition on the under. Philip Rivers always helps keep the Chargers competitive, even in seasons such as 2015 when they couldn’t run block. On offense, their big addition was WR Travis Benjamin. On defense, the Chargers couldn’t stop the run last season. Adding DT Brandon Mebane, who won a Super Bowl with Seattle three seasons ago, should help address that. Rookie first round draft pick DE Joey Bosa is still unsigned.

Here are the odds for all four AFC West teams posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Denver Broncos +190
  • Kansas City Chiefs +220
  • Oakland Raiders +220
  • San Diego Chargers +650

Who will lead the 2016-2017 NFL season in receiving yards?

Atlanta WR Julio Jones had the most receiving yards in the NFL in 2015/16 (1,871 yards), but Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown (1,834 receiving yards last season) is the slight betting favorite to lead the league in the season ahead. No other player managed to exceed the 1,600 receiving yard mark last year.

Brown is listed as the +200 favorite, with Jones just behind at +300. Brown is slightly favored in part because the Steelers will be without top running back Le’Veon Bell for the first four games of the regular season if he fails to win the appeal of his suspension.

Following Brown and Jones is Giants WR Odell Beckham at +750. ODBJ actually finished fifth in the league with 1,450 receiving yards in 2015 – in 15 games. Perhaps more telling though was his third place ranking in average yards per game of 96.7 in 2015, a stat he also led in 2014 in only 12 games (108.8 yards per game)!

DeAndre Hopkins of the Houston Texans is fourth at +1000. Hopkins place third in 2015 with 1,521 receiving yards. A.J. Green (1,297 yards in 205) and Jordy Nelson, who sat out the 2015 season with an ACL, are both +1800.

Here are the odds for the top receivers posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Antonio Brown +200
  • Julio Jones +300
  • Odell Beckham +750
  • DeAndre Hopkins +1000
  • A.J. Green +1800
  • Jordy Nelson +1800
  • Allen Robinson +2000
  • Alshon Jeffery +2200
  • Amari Cooper +2500
  • Keenan Allen +3300
  • Dez Bryant +3300
  • Mike Evans +3300
  • T.Y. Hilton +3300
  • Brandon Marshall +3300
  • Demaryius Thomas +3300
  • Sammy Watkins +4000
  • Brandin Cooks +5000
  • Golden Tate +5000
  • Jeremy Maclin +5000
  • Jarvis Landry +6600
  • Doug Baldwin +6600
  • Rob Gronkowski +6600
  • Julian Edelman +6600
  • Kelvin Benjamin +6600
  • DeSean Jackson +6600
  • Donte Moncrief +10000
  • Emmanuel Sanders +10000
  • Eric Decker +10000
  • John Brown +10000
  • Larry Fitzgerald +10000
  • Michael Floyd +10000
  • Allen Hurns +10000
  • Jordan Matthews +10000
  • Kevin White +10000
  • Laquan Treadwell +10000
  • Markus Wheaton +10000
  • Torrey Smith +10000

Who will lead the 2016-2017 NFL season in passing yards?

Even though the New Orleans Saints finished 7-9 in 2015 and missed the playoffs, the prolific Drew Brees still led the NFL in passing with 4,870 yards – in only 15 games played. Brees enters the 2016 NFL season as the favorite again at +500 after showing remarkable consistency in recent years. He led the league in passing in 2014 – in a tie with Ben Roethlisberger with 4,952 yards. From 2011-2013 Brees surpassed the 5,000-yard passing mark each season, peaking with 5,476 passing yards back in the 2011 season.

Roethlisberger is listed as a close second at +600. Roethlisberger played in just 12 games last season and threw for 3,938 yards putting him #1 for average yards per game at 328.2. Drew Brees was second at in average YPG at 324.7.

Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers is listed third on this prop bet at +700. Rivers was second with 4,792 passing yards last season and he was third in average YPG at 299.5. Rivers also threw for 4,286 yards back in the 2014 season.

Matt Ryan of the Atlanta Falcons and Eli Manning of the New York Giants are both at +900, with Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers at +1000. Rogers was 17th last season with 3,821 yards, but the Pack was without WR Jordy Nelson (knee) for the season.

Here are the odds for the top QBs posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Drew Brees +500
  • Ben Roethlisberger +600
  • Phillip Rivers +700
  • Matt Ryan +900
  • Eli Manning +900
  • Aaron Rodgers +1000
  • Carson Palmer +1100
  • Andrew Luck +1200
  • Matthew Stafford +1600
  • Kirk Cousins +2500
  • Derek Carr +2500
  • Joe Flacco +3300
  • Andy Dalton +3300
  • Blake Bortles +3300
  • Tony Romo +3300
  • Ryan Tannehill +4000
  • Brock Osweiler +4000
  • Jay Cutler +4000
  • Russell Wilson +5000
  • Jameis Winston +5000
  • Tom Brady +5000
  • Cam Newton +5000
  • Marcus Mariota +7500
  • Sam Bradford +7500
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick +7500
  • Teddy Bridgewater +7500
  • Tyrod Taylor +7500
  • Alex Smith +7500
  • Robert Griffin lll +7500
  • Jared Goff +10000

Who will win the 2016-2017 NFL MVP Award?

Aaron Rodgers is the +400 favorite on the odds to win the NFL MVP Award in the season ahead. Cam Newton won the MVP last season, but the Panthers QB trails Aaron Rodgers on that props list for 2016. Rodgers has won the MVP award twice before – in 2011 and 2014. He was great again last season with 3,821 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, and just 8 interceptions. However, the Packers were sub-par at just 10-6 last season.

The Panthers, on the other hand, went 15-1 last season. Cam threw for 3,837 yards with 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also had a whopping 636 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs and received 48 out of 50 votes for last season’s MVP Award. Still, Newton is listed third at +800 just behind Ben Roethlisberger who is currently listed at +750 on those betting lines. Big Ben threw for 3,938 yards and 21 touchdowns in just 12 games last season.

Quarterbacks then take up the next four slots on the NFL MVP Award odds as well, with the Seattle Seahawks’ Russell Wilson at +800, the New England Patriots’ Tom Brady at +1000, and the Indianapolis Colts’ Andrew Luck and the Arizona Cardinals’ Carson Palmer at +1600.

Brady has won the NFL MVP Award twice in his career (2007 and 2010), but he’ll have some work to do this season to grab the accolade as he’ll sit out the first four games serving his Deflategate suspension. Brady and Palmer each received a single MVP vote last season.

Here are the odds for the NFL MVP posted online at Bovada (as of 08/17/16):

  • Aaron Rodgers +425
  • Ben Roethlisberger +750
  • Cam Newton +800
  • Russell Wilson +800
  • Tom Brady +1000
  • Andrew Luck +1200
  • Carson Palmer +1600
  • Eli Manning +2500
  • J.J. Watt +2500
  • Tony Romo +2500
  • Drew Brees +3300
  • Adrian Peterson +3300
  • Todd Gurley +5000
  • Andy Dalton +5000
  • Derek Carr +5000
  • Khalil Mack +5000
  • Blake Bortles +6600
  • Rob Gronkowski +6600
  • Matt Ryan +6600

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