NFL Betting Strategies – How Do Blowouts Effect Your Betting?
What does the term “blowout hangover” mean when it comes to NFL betting strategies? Well, how many times have you seen an NFL team really take it on the chin, losing by 30 or 40 points, and you’re saying to yourself. “Oh my God, this team is so bad, it doesn’t look like they’ll ever win another game. I’m going the other way next week, no matter which team they play.”
It’s certainly natural to feel that way since, after all, you wouldn’t normally expect a team to have much of a turnaround in a seven-day period.
Well, just hold on for a minute.
NFL Betting Strategies – Blowout Lessons Learned
Your lesson for the day, VietBet customers, is this:
Don’t, as a matter of custom, write off teams beaten in blowouts when they line up the next week. I remember a stretch of games quite a few years ago that popped out at me. The San Francisco Forty-Niners, who were ripped apart 41-0 in a trip to Kansas City, then came back to win and cover against Oakland. The Jets, who took a 41-0 shellacking at Jacksonville, then rebounded to beat Miami. And then, those same Kansas City Chiefs, who had throttled San Francisco earlier, came back from a 45-7 embarrassment in Pittsburgh by beating the San Diego Chargers, who were favored in the NFL betting odds. The Tennessee Titans, who had been beaten 40-7 in San Diego, came back and played better in a 13-10 loss in Miami, which resulted in a covering effort.
You may wonder how these kinds of things happen.
Well, first you have to understand that in each case, the losing team is not nearly as bad as the performance they have given. And the team that beat them may not be as good as it appeared to have demonstrated. So it’s a matter of perspective getting out of whack.
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NFL Betting Strategies – Don’t Lose Sight of Reality
The fact is, the players in the NFL are pros. There is a draft and a certain distribution of talent. Unlike college football, where there can literally be a genuine difference of 40 points or more between two teams, in the NFL there is usually no more than 15 points difference in the value (or “power rating”) between the top team and the bottom team. Each of these teams is capable of playing well against a better team in any given week and beating an NFL betting line that might be overpriced. Because they are among a group of the greatest players in the world, and even though they take some abuse from time to time, they still play with a certain amount of pride (that’s generally how they got there).
These teams are very anxious to avoid embarrassment. The coaching staff will have a tendency to crack the whip a little more. The players will go into the week of preparation with more focus. In many ways, having suffered a lopsided defeat is less psychologically damaging for a team, with less of a negative carryover, than if they lost a real close one that could have easily been won. The blowout loss makes teams want to look ahead a lot more than the close, hurtful defeat, which can make a team look back and wonder which one thing they could have done.
The possibility of overconfidence on the part of the opponent of a blown-out team is always going to be there, even though it has been demonstrated time and again that such an attitude is foolish. And you stand a real chance of getting value in the NFL betting line because the public often relies on results from the week before. This cannot be over-emphasized. So keep this in mind – sometimes the blowout is a signal for you to take advantage of the aftereffect, and could wind up presenting a unique opportunity to make a strong play.
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Check out College Football betting strategies for more good insider info.